COP26: lead up

EU Environment Ministers, Environment Council of 6 October 2021, approved conclusions setting out the EU’s position for the United Nations climate change summit (COP26) in Glasgow, UK – here.

ECOFIN (5th October 2021) conclusions on climate finance are here.

COP26 aims to bring countries together to accelerate action towards the goals of the Paris Agreement. The Paris Agreement (PA) was adopted in 2015 at the UN Climate Change Conference (COP 21) and entered into force on 4 November 2016.

It counts to date 191 countries and the European Union, and sets two main goals –

(1) limiting the global average temperature increase to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels, and pursuing efforts to limit it to 1.5°C,

(2) adapting to the unavoidable impacts of climate change while making finance flows consistent with climate-resilient development.

The main goals of COP26 are to encourage parties to come forward with ambitious Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) that establish their emission reduction targets for 2030, to discuss adaptation measures, to increase climate finance and to finalise the Paris Rulebook (the detailed rules that make the Paris Agreement operational).

The state of NDCs is collated in the interim NDC Registry, the latest NDC Synthesis Report is 17th September 2021 (NDCs submitted and recorded to 30 July 2021). NDCs contain information on targets, and policies and measures for reducing national emissions and on adapting to climate change impacts.  NDCs also contain information on either the needs for, or the provision of, finance, technologies and capacity building for these actions. Countries communicate new or updated NDCs to the interim NDC Registry every five years starting in 2020. The interim NDC Registry is here.

The state of domestic mitigation measures (not country specified) is here.

An update of the key findings of the NDC Synthesis Report, which will cover updated or new NDCs submitted between 31 July and 12 October 2021, will be published on 25 October. This is to ensure that the most updated information is made available to COP26.

The September 2021 NDC Synthesis Report identified an urgent need for either –

* a significant increase in the level of ambition of NDCs between now and 2030, or

* a significant overachievement of the latest NDCs,

* or a combination of both,

in order to attain cost-optimal emission levels suggested in many of the scenarios considered by the IPCC for keeping warming well below 2 °C or limiting it to 1.5 °C.

If emissions are not reduced by 2030, they will need to be substantially reduced thereafter to compensate for the slow start on the path to net zero emissions. Net zero CO2 emissions are a prerequisite for halting warming at any level.

At COP26, parties also need to agree on the details of the so-called Art.6 that lays down rules for international carbon markets, enabling parties to trade emission reductions. In addition, parties will seek to establish a common time frame for their NDCs. Discussions at global level revolve around setting a five-year or a ten-year common time frame.

The UK (COP26 host) is making announcements currently about its domestic measures, I will blog post separately when the strategy documents are published.

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