What’s happening re Brexit (UK Brexit)

Exit day is 31st October (this date is set out in a Statutory Instrument)

EU-UK Agreement is reached on the Johnson Exit terms (the Withdrawal Agreement agreed last week), but this Agreement must be ratified by both the UK and the EU Parliaments (if you remember ratification of the earlier agreed May Exit terms failed at the UK Parliament step, and the Exit day was extended).

Yesterday, the UK Parliament voted to require completion of the full legislative elements of ratification (passage of an unpublished Withdrawal Agreement Bill) first. Plus (in fulfilment of the EU (Withdrawal) (No. 2) Act 2019 – the Benn Act), the UK applied for the Exit day to be moved to 31st January 2020.

Tomorrow, it may be the Johnson Exit terms will return for UK Parliament vote, but it’s more likely ratification will move straight to the legislative element – the Withdrawal Agreement Bill.

We don’t know exactly what will be in the Withdrawal Agreement Bill (WAB), because it is not published, but many, possibly hundreds, of amendments are likely, at least for debate.

If the WAB is enacted by 31st October, the UK exits with the Johnson Exit terms (see the posts of last week on the (Johnson) revised Ireland-Northern Ireland Protocol, and the (Johnson) revised Political Declaration).

If the WAB is not enacted by 31st October, the Exit day is moved to the 31st January 2020 (if the EU has granted the application), or a different date (if the EU sets a different date and the UK Parliament agrees it).

The UK government has also triggered its Operation Yellowhammer no deal contingency plan.

Please look out for further Blog posts on the matter.

[next week also has the votes scheduled on the Queen’s Speech, and the Environment Bill Second Reading]

Exit day changes (update) (UK Brexit)

Exit day is 31st October (this date is in a UK Statutory Instrument that is commenced)

This post updates a post I wrote a few days ago, of similar title.

Today, the House of Lords agreed (without amendment) the Bill – the European Union (Withdrawal) (No. 6) Bill 2019 – brought by persons other than the Government of Johnson-DUP. This Bill now gains Royal Assent by a matter of course.

The Act (therefore duly enacted) will oblige the Prime Minister to seek to extend the Exit day to 31st January 2020 by letter in the form set out in the Schedule (and to accept immediately any EU agreement to extension – and to accept any other EU proposed extension in two days unless the House of Commons rejects it) –

unless by 19th October Parliament consents to Exit without a deal or it agrees to a new deal with the EU.

The Act will also oblige the Government to make regular reports to Parliament on the progress of negotiations with the EU.

The bill was amended in committee in the House of Commons. The amendment added a statement to the bill setting out that the intention of the request for an extension to article 50 would be to pass a withdrawal agreement bill.

This, however, does not create a legal duty to pass a withdrawal agreement bill.

The Johnson-DUP administration already has Crown powers (available to it) to suspend Parliament during dates in September and October. It is expected to suspend Parliament on Monday, after a second request of Opposition Parties to dissolve Parliament so that a General Election may be held. Opposition Parties this morning agreed to oppose the Johnson-DUP administration in this request.

The Prime Minister said today that he would not extend the Exit day. The EU appears to signal that it could regard enactment of the Act as a legal request, even if it’s not made by the Prime Minister.

It is also possible a deal is agreed with the EU that is accepted by Parliament, by the 19th October, but this looks remote.

I will next issue a Blog post on the matter of Exit day changes in mid October, on the assumption that (1) Parliament is not dissolved to hold a General Election, and (2) Parliament is suspended until then.